Germany is at risk of missing its climate target for the first time in 2026

For the first time, Germany could fail to meet its national emissions reduction target in 2026. Estimates published on 28 August by our sister organisation Agora Energiewende highlight this risk, which is based on preliminary energy sales data for the first half of 2026; Agora Verkehrswende assisted with analysis for the transport sector.

In past years, only individual sectors in Germany – most notably transport – have missed their emissions targets. However, if the trend witnessed in the first half of 2026 continues, emissions cuts achieved in other sectors may no longer be enough to offset the reduction shortfall in transport.

Current estimates indicate that transport emissions fell by 4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) in the first half of 2026. Across all sectors, however, emissions fell only slightly, by up to 7 million tonnes of CO₂e. Overall emissions reductions in 2026 could reach some 13 million tonnes. This would leave Germany’s total emissions around 10 million tonnes above the 2026 statutory target of 625 million tonnes of CO₂e.

The observed fall in transport emissions is mainly attributable to the weak economy and an attendant decline in heavy road freight. This has led to a 6 per cent drop in diesel sales. Car traffic volumes declined only marginally, despite high fuel prices.

Growing sales of electric vehicles are helping to reduce emissions. The 2 million electric vehicles registered on Germany’s roads at the start of the year are estimated to have saved around 1.4 million tonnes of CO₂e in the first half of 2026, even after accounting for the additional emissions in the energy sector required to generate the electricity they consume.

The adoption of electric vehicles accelerated further in the first half of 2026. In addition to fleet-wide CO₂ emissions standards, the main drivers of electric-vehicle adoption have been the fossil fuel price crisis and the government’s new purchase rebate scheme.

Overall, however, the transition to climate-friendly technologies is progressing too slowly. Money that could be invested in the sustainable transport sector of the future continues to be absorbed by expensive oil and gas imports.

The solution to this predicament lies in expanding renewable energy, in electrifying energy use (for example, through electric mobility), and in improving energy efficiency while reducing energy consumption (for example, by shifting demand to public transport and shared mobility). These measures can also pave the way for greater economic competitiveness, social justice and improved quality of life.

For the transport sector, the necessary priorities are:

• Set a clear course and move swiftly to implement electric mobility, automated driving, and industrial transformation.
• Modernise transport infrastructure and secure long-term funding.
• Make transport and mobility a shared strategic priority across government departments, with responsibility firmly established at the cabinet level.

Read Agora Energiewende’s 2026 mid-year review (German language).

Our English-language policy paper Joint venture for the cabinet provides an overview of our recommendations for climate action in transport.