Africa’s Raw Materials for Electric Mobility at a Glance

African raw materials will play a critical role for net zero in road transport on the continent and beyond: Africa’s importance for the global supply chains of raw materials that are critical for electric mobility becomes particularly evident when comparing its current mining production with the projected requirements under the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, which gives an indication of future global demand as part of the transition to carbon neutrality. As illustrated in the left graph in Figure 3, today’s African mining output could already satisfy a significant share of the annual raw material demand required to reach net zero, particularly for cobalt and copper. While cobalt demand for EV batteries is expected to decline over time due to the growing adoption of LFP battery technology, copper demand will continue to increase with overall EV deployment, suggesting that Africa could secure substantial market shares if current production levels are maintained. Current reserve shares indicate that there is underutilized potential to do so (see right graph). Similarly, manganese production in Africa currently exceeds projected NZE requirements. While demand for NMC batteries may decline in the future, Africa could leverage its existing production capacity and reserves to supply remaining global demand.[9]

Domestic processing capacity differs by country but remains insufficient overall: A closer look at country-specific trade patterns and critical raw materials is illuminating. For example, the DRC exports mostly refined copper, while Zambia still relies heavily on unprocessed copper, highlighting the uneven development of local beneficiation across African mining countries.[13] The same study concludes that there is a stark contrast between the limited scale of existing beneficiation facilities and Africa’s raw material production capacity. With roughly half of the continent’s 215 facilities focused on comminution and only about 20% each on smelting and refining, current processing capacity is largely insufficient given CRM production levels and anticipated growth in global demand.[14] In fact, IEA data underline that China is the single largest processor of most EV raw materials considered in this analysis, except for nickel (see Figure 5).[15]

When also considering the export revenue analysis above, which identifies China as the primary importer of African raw materials for electric mobility, these findings highlight China’s strategic positioning across all major stages of the value chain for EVs. From importing critical raw materials - including ownership stakes in mines in Africa, particularly in the DRC[16] - to processing these elements domestically, manufacturing battery components, and ultimately assembling batteries, China is able to capture substantial value and exert control over key supply chains for electric mobility.[17] Consequently, any strategy aimed at enabling Africa to secure greater value from its raw materials has to take China’s recently dominant role and specific interests into account.

While EV raw material production at existing mines is rising, investment in exploration for new mines is on the decline: Between 2014 and 2024, Africa’s overall mining output by weight increased by roughly 15%. While phosphate rock, the heaviest raw material among those examined, remained relatively stable, production of all other key minerals grew substantially. Graphite and lithium output rose by more than 90%, while the production of manganese and copper, already at high levels, increased by around 50%. Recent data show that exploration investment in Africa has declined in absolute terms, from over USD 1.6 billion in 2014 to just over USD 1.2 billion in 2023 (see Figure 5).[18] Over the same period, the continent’s share of global mining exploration investment also fell, from 16% to 10%, reflecting both the decline in absolute investment and faster growth of exploration spending in other regions such as Canada and Australia. 

This divergence between rising mining output and declining investment highlights the complex dynamics shaping Africa’s mineral sector. On the one hand, increased output reflects strong global demand for energy transition minerals. On the other hand, persistent regional challenges, including financing risks, political uncertainties as well as protective industrial policies, may have contributed to a lower inflow of foreign direct investment and are likely behind falling outlays for exploration.[19] Much of the recent production growth seems to have come from the expansion of existing operations rather than from new projects or exploration. Given declining investment in exploration and production, revenues from resource extraction could remain stagnant or even decline, with knock-on effects for domestic economic performance. These trends are further compounded by Africa’s limited raw material processing capacity, as mentioned before.

One example of a promising development in the area of regional cooperation – yet one that also faces significant challenges – is the envisioned collaboration between Zambia and the DRC to establish a “battery cluster” for joint precursor and component production.[26] Such initiatives could potentially pave the way for the development of integrated industrial clusters that take advantage of key raw material resources, with growing and progressively expanding capacities in extraction, local materials processing, battery manufacturing, and ultimately electric vehicle production. To support such interlinked development, a promising path is to develop industrial policy frameworks that are attuned to country-specific strengths and weaknesses. Most critically, this includes fostering robust demand for electric mobility within African countries, as strong local offtake provides the economic anchor necessary for sustained investment. Only by ensuring predictable demand for locally produced batteries and vehicles can self-sufficient and long-term sustainable e-mobility clusters emerge, effectively linking mining, processing, battery production, and vehicle assembly across the region.

African countries become a lead market for electric mobility: However, a critical catalyst for realizing these linkages is the development of robust local and regional electric mobility markets. Predictable demand for electric vehicles and related components in Africa would provide additional economic incentive for companies to invest in processing, battery production, and vehicle assembly in the first place. By reducing offtake uncertainty for these goods, electric vehicle markets can support the local growth of new supply chains – particularly in high value-added segments – while also leveraging mining capabilities to unlock broader industrial development.

Africa–EU Cooperation promises to yield significant mutual benefits: African countries can enhance and expand industrial capacities by pursuing stronger international cooperation with international partners such as the EU. As part of its Critical Raw Materials Act, the EU has identified 13 strategic projects outside the union, four of which are located on the African continent (see Figure 7). These partnerships aim to bolster EU supply chain resilience while also supporting domestic value creation in partnering countries. However, implementation faces challenges, including institutional fragmentation within the EU; industrial policy tensions that (at the moment) prioritize capacity building within the EU; and, perhaps most critically, financing constraints that can hinder long-term project commitments. Projects connected to the mining value chain are highly capital intensive, and are subject to various risks, including uncertain offtake.[27] Sustained EU support, particularly in facilitating offtake agreements with European companies, could provide African producers with stable revenue streams while ensuring secure access for European industries. However, despite engagement from the European Investment Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or the Global Gateway Initiative, no dedicated EU funding mechanism currently exists for raw materials cooperation. However, the announced EU Energy and Raw Materials Platform could be a promising springboard for bringing together actors on both the supply and demand sides.[28] Ultimately, EU support for projects across the entire value chain – from mining to processing and beyond – could be important for strategic partnerships to be successful and reap mutual benefits.

In light of the above, one particularly promising avenue for EU–Africa partnership is to support the development of domestic and regional electric mobility markets in Africa. Creating demand for locally processed minerals and domestically manufactured battery components would reduce offtake uncertainty, thus increasing the bankability of long-term investments in corresponding industrial capacities. The EU, for its part, would benefit from the strategically relevant diversification of raw material sourcing, thus ensuring partnerships with Africa are founded on genuine reciprocity. Nonetheless, sufficient financial backing is required to unlock the advantages that such cooperation could bring in terms of raw material access for Europe and economic development for Africa.