EV NDC World Map

The transport sector represents a critical dimension of the global effort to mitigate climate change. As a primary contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, it accounts for nearly one-quarter of global energy-related CO₂ emissions, with road transport responsible for approximately 75 percent of that share. This significant emissions footprint underscores the urgent need for decarbonisation strategies that can deliver substantial and timely reductions.

Electric mobility stands out as a pivotal near-term strategy to achieve this goal. The International Transport Forum’s (ITF) Transport Outlook 2023 report identifies accelerated action on clean vehicles and fuels as the most impactful lever for decarbonisation. Indeed, this lever accounts for three-quarters of the emission reductions between the ITF’s Current Ambition and High Ambition scenarios. 

Recent analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) confirms that the transition to e-mobility is not just a theoretical potential, but is already underway, driven by concrete policy action. The ICCT’s Vision 2050 report shows that policies adopted in major economies over the past few years have significantly improved the emissions outlook, putting global road transport CO₂ emissions on track to peak as early as 2025.

However, this positive momentum should not be taken as grounds for complacency. The same ICCT study serves as a crucial reminder that a significant gap remains between current policy commitments and a trajectory that is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (see Figure 1). Thus, while progress is real, it is not yet sufficient. There is a critical need to not only maintain but drastically accelerate the ambition to adopt electric mobility in national climate plans, including in the latest NDC round.

As of mid-December 2025, 128 countries had submitted their third NDCs, including the European Union, whose NDC sets the course for its 27 Member States.

According to our analysis, 66 countries (52%) include specific electric mobility targets in their NDC 3.0. This represents a significant increase in formal ambition, as 52 countries have introduced electric mobility goals for the first time (compared to prior submissions). Situating this policy ambition within the broader market, countries with NDC-based electric mobility goals now account for more than 62 percent of global car sales.[1] A broader view shows that 104 countries have incorporated some form of EV-related policies or measures, highlighting that while many governments are prioritising the sector, some of them are still lacking the inclusion of concrete, measurable targets.

The push for electric mobility encompasses major markets such as the European Union and China. The regulatory direction for the automotive industry is thus increasingly clear, despite the varying specificity of underlying commitments. 

The list of parties with EV targets consists of: Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Cambodia, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Liberia, Mauritania, Mauritius, Moldova, Monaco, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Suriname, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Vanuatu, Zambia, and the European Union.

When examining the income-level distribution of countries with EV targets (see Figure 2), high-income nations represent about 48 percent of all countries with EV targets in their NDC 3.0, although they account for roughly 30 percent of all countries globally. This distribution is shaped by the structure of the UNFCCC submissions: the 27 member states of the European Union, which have mostly a high-income level, are represented by a single NDC, which intrinsically contains an EV target for all of them. The majority of the remaining commitments come from middle-income countries, which constitute about 46 percent of all countries with an EV target. This high rate of participation underscores that for developing countries and emerging economies, the NDC process is a crucial platform for signalling climate priorities and accessing international support.

Despite the political commitment to e-mobility that continues to gain steam among a diverse set of nations, the aggregate climate impact of these commitments remains limited. To date, countries with electric mobility targets in their NDC 3.0 account for just 34 percent of global transport sector GHG emissions. Among the top ten global emitters from the transport sector, Canada, China, and the European Union have incorporated a clear EV target in their latest submission. Major emitters such as the United States, Russia, and Brazil have thus far omitted such targets, and India has yet to submit its NDC 3.0.

Our analysis thus reveals two parallel stories in global climate action. First, ambition must expand beyond its current core: high-income leaders like the EU must be joined by other major emitters in formalising clear EV transition targets within their NDCs. Second, the burgeoning commitment from the Global South, evidenced by its high share of NDC submissions and EV targets, must be met with scaled-up international support. This is crucial for bridging the capacity gap, thereby ensuring their growing ambition translates into on-the-ground decarbonisation.

Among the 66 countries with specific EV targets, some nations stand out by presenting not just percentage targets for electric vehicle (EV) sales, but also broad vehicle-segment coverage. In addition, they show a commitment to complementary infrastructure and industrial policies, and have undertaken detailed financial planning. The next table shows seven nations with particularly strong electric mobility ambitions among NDC 3.0 submissions.

The standout commitments from Canada and the United Kingdom are their legislated phase-outs of new internal combustion engine vehicles, providing regulatory framework for a 100 percent zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) market by 2035. However, it must be noted that both governments have recently modified implementation in response to ongoing public debate. Specifically, the federal government of Canada has delayed the start of its ZEV mandate by one year, pausing the 2026 target of 20 percent ZEV sales and initiating a 60-day review of the policy. This decision was attributed to trade pressures and a desire to reduce the burden on automakers. Meanwhile, the UK government has re-confirmed that from 2030, all new cars must be hybridised or zero-emission, explicitly allowing the sale of full hybrids (HEVs) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) alongside ZEVs until the 2035 deadline. These two cases highlight the dynamic nature of this transition.

Barbados matches this level of ambition with its 2035 100 percent EV mandate for new passenger vehicles. Rwanda has set one of the highest market-share targets globally, aiming for 70 percent of new vehicle registrations to be electric by 2035. Cuba is aiming for 70 percent of newly registered vehicles across segments to be electric by 2035. Nepal emerges as perhaps the most remarkably ambitious developing economy. Its strategy encompasses nearly the entire transport ecosystem, from private cars and two-wheelers to public transport, freight, and waste collection vehicles. Crucially, Nepal backs its targets with quantified infrastructure projects and conditional financial plans, demonstrating a sophisticated and costed roadmap for implementation.

At the supranational level, the European Union represents the most extensive regulatory framework, with binding legislation for a 100 percent CO₂ reduction for new cars and vans by 2035 and similarly ambitious escalating targets for urban buses and heavy-duty vehicles.

In terms of vehicle segments, light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have a dominant focus among the 66 countries that submitted NDCs 3.0 with e-mobility targets by mid-December (see next figure): 56 countries (85%) have set targets for those, followed by 49 countries with targets for buses (74%), 36 with targets for trucks (55%) and 13 for motorcycles and three-wheelers (20%). Charging infrastructure, which is a critical enabler of EV adoption, is notably absent from most plans. Only nine countries (China, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Liberia, Pakistan, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Suriname, and the United Arab Emirates) include specific targets for deploying charging stations.

A comparative analysis between NDC rounds reveals a landscape of growing ambition. There is a marked increase in specificity and scope between NDC 2.0 and NDC 3.0, with 52 countries articulating their electric mobility targets for the first time (see next figure). The NDCs of countries like Nepal and Belize have evolved from containing general statements or single-measure approaches to comprehensive, multi-faceted strategies. Nepal, for instance, not only increased its 2035 sales targets for public passenger vehicles from 60 to 90 percent but also introduced new targets for freight vehicles and detailed, costed infrastructure projects. This shift from vague policy intentions to measurable outcomes is a critical step for ensuring accountability and attracting investment.

However, this positive momentum is also accompanied by a countervailing trend of diminished ambition. Nine countries – Andorra, Brunei Darussalam, Cabo Verde, Chile, Honduras, Jordan, Seychelles, Tonga, and Uruguay – had established specific EV targets in their NDC 2.0 that are now omitted from their NDC 3.0 submissions. For example, Chile has removed its previous target of achieving 100 percent electric taxis and public transport, while Uruguay has withdrawn its goal of achieving a 30 percent share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2030. These commitments had previously sent clear and valuable signals to the market.
The following timetable provides a visual overview of national targets across all parties with EV targets in the new round of NDCs.
 

Parties to the Paris Agreement are invited to submit Long-term Strategies (LTS), or long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, to complement the ten-year time horizon of NDCs with a long-term vision. They are a crucial indicator of countries’ commitments to reach net-zero GHG emissions by mid-century and thereby keep the Agreement’s targets within reach.

Of the 84 countries which have submitted LTS (most of them between 2020 and 2024), 29 include specific EV targets. The following table details how EV targets have been carried forward, or, in some cases, omitted, between a country’s LTS and its latest NDC.
 

This analysis of the third generation NDCs provides a global snapshot of political intent for the electric vehicle transition at a critical juncture. Our findings reveal a world standing at the crossroads: while formal ambition is rising, commitments often lack the specificity required to transform pledges into economic reality.

For industry leaders, these findings deliver a clear, if complex, message. On one hand, the upward trajectory in NDC ambition, coupled with the fact that over 62 percent of the global car market is already covered by NDC-based transport electrification or ICE phase-out targets, demonstrate a clear direction of travel for markets and associated regulatory frameworks. The transition to net zero is not a hypothetical future; it is the established policy trajectory of the world’s largest economies and a growing number of emerging markets.

On the other hand, a persistent lack of specificity, particularly with a view to infrastructure, coupled with wavering or withdrawn targets by some nations, is creating uncertainty that can delay investment and slow the pace of change. Industries cannot plan confidently on aspirations alone; they require the clarity of detailed roadmaps, stable regulations, and synchronised infrastructure rollouts.

The path forward will thus involve converting political ambition into market certainty. sound foundation for planning by all market participants. Therefore, the imperative for the next NDC cycle and parallel national policy is clear: countries must rapidly convert strategic ambition into operational certainty. First, countries should bridge the implementation gap. This means upgrading the prevalent Tier 2 policies into Tier 1 action plans by attaching specific, annualised, and funded targets for vehicle sales, public fleet renewal, and the deployment of public and private charging infrastructure. Simultaneously, high-profile political pledges, such as the ZEV Declaration, must be locked into binding NDC commitments to provide the stable, long-term regulatory certainty that industries require to invest at scale.

Second, this planning should be supported by mobilising tailored finance. Ambitious targets in emerging economies will remain aspirational without dedicated capital. This requires designing bankable EV and infrastructure projects that can attract international climate finance and development bank funding. At the same time, wealthier nations should back their domestic strategies with clear public financing mechanisms to de-risk private investment, particularly for grid upgrades and charging access.

Ultimately, moving beyond isolated vehicle adoption targets is essential. The transition's success hinges on the resilience of the entire industrial ecosystem. This requires governments to conduct structured national assessments and develop integrated plans that address all steps of the EV lifecycle. To support such efforts, Agora Verkehrswende has developed a framework for analysing the comprehensiveness of EV policy instruments (see next figure). This tool is designed to reveal potential blind spots and gaps across the EV ecosystem, thus serving as a starting point for delineating necessary action areas.