EV NDC World Map

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are national climate action plans that form a central element of the Paris Agreement. They outline a country’s targets and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts, with the collective goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by the end of this century. 

The NDC process operates on a five-year cycle for submission and updating. While earlier NDCs often laid out actions with a long-term view, many culminating in 2030 targets, the third round, due in 2025, is the first one to uniformly outline national climate actions with a specific and common implementation horizon through 2035.

This round represents a pivotal juncture, not just because it comes a decade after the Paris Agreement’s adoption, but because the window to limit global warming to 1.5°C is rapidly closing. The actions taken between 2025 and 2035 will be decisive in determining whether the world can meet this goal. Consequently, the level of ambition in these NDCs is a direct test of countries’ commitment to turning political promises into tangible emissions reductions. These updated plans are intended to outline increasingly ambitious action and coincide with the phase-out date for the sale of new combustion cars in several jurisdictions. 

This cycle is also the first one to be informed by the Global Stocktake (GST), a comprehensive assessment of collective progress. The first GST process, which concluded in 2023, was based on commitments submitted in the run-up to COP26 in 2021. This stocktake underscored the significant gap between existing pledges and what is required to meet the Paris goals, adding further weight to the imperative for enhanced ambition in this round. 

Agora Verkehrswende’s analysis of electric mobility policies within the third round of NDCs was made considering the difference of national approaches: from highly specific and actionable measures to aspirational statements. By categorising these policies based on their concreteness and measurability, clear patterns emerge regarding the global readiness to implement a transition to zero-emission transport technologies. The submitted policies can be classified into three distinct tiers of commitment:

• Concrete and actionable measures (Tier 1): These represent the most robust commitments, characterised by specific, quantitative targets and clear deadlines. Examples include Canada’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Availability Standard mandating 100% ZEV sales by 2035; Pakistan’s target for 30% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030, accompanied by a plan for 3,000 charging stations; and Liberia’s specific goal to deploy over 6,000 electric two and three-wheelers by 2035. These policies are tangible to track, hold governments accountable, and provide the clearest signals to the market.

• Implementation-focused measures (Tier 2): This category comprises the majority of NDCs analysed. They describe a clear course of action but lack the specific numerical targets or firm deadlines that define Tier 1. For instance, Angola plans to develop nationwide charging infrastructure and launch pilot projects for electric buses, and Jordan is establishing a fast-charging network with tax incentives. While these pledges demonstrate a clear intent and a defined pathway, the absence of quantifiable outcomes makes it difficult to measure their direct impact and to hold countries to account in terms of implementation speed and scale.

• Generic and aspirational declarations (Tier 3): These are declarations of intent without a concrete plan or measurable outcome. Policies from countries like Botswana (to “provide incentives”) and Brazil (to “replace fossil fuels with electricity”) fall into this category. While they indicate political support for the energy transition, clear adoption targets and metrics for verifying success are missing, thus instilling little confidence in meaningful policy execution or outcomes.